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| Thursday June 23, 2011 |
| Canadian Acreage Report Here is a recap of the Stats Can Preliminary Seeded estimates. The survey was conducted late May to June 3rd. This was done before the full effect of all the flooding was known by the farmers. Hence we feel the canola acreage of 19.8 MM acres is over stated. We feel a more realistic number would be in the 18.0 (or sub 18) to maybe 18.5 MM acres. The wild card will be yields as many of these acres are seeded on less than ideal seeding conditions. Some was sown by air, with no seed incorporation, hoping it germinates. Thus acres may be there, but what will the yield and quality be? Weather has been very extreme and we have a lot of summer left. Thus this report in a lot of respects does not help and truer numbers will only be know after the July 31 report comes out. Hope this helps. Statistics Canada released its Preliminary Estimates of Principal Field Crop Areas report this morning. The Canadian survey was carried out between May 25 and June 3. Stats Can estimates the sample for the planting survey consisted of about 25,000 farms, which is double the numbers questioned for the intentions forecast released in April. Of particular interest to Doane's Commercial Advisory clients are Wheat and Canola plantings. Farmers indicated that they were expanding plantings of both crops. But Statistics Canada properly notes in its general comments that inclement weather in the eastern Prairies had caused delays and had created uncertainty for farmers about which crop to plant. There will be a new survey in July with results released on August 24. The U.S. futures market may not pay much attention to the report as plunging crude oil prices are producing bearish sentiment for many commodities. Wheat Statistics Canada says farmers intend to plant 23.568 million acres or 9.537 million hectares to wheat. That is down from the intentions forecast at 24.724 million or 10.005 million hectares to all classes of wheat. Plantings last year totaled 21.065 million acres or 8.524 million hectares. A recent survey found Canadian analysts estimating wheat plantings would total between 21.5 million and 23.5 million acres. Today's forecast came in at the high end of the range, but will be discounted on the assumption that rains in June continued to impede plantings and final plantings will be down from this survey. Last year the June report indicated 23.72 million planted amidst a similar period of planting delays. Canola Statistics Canada says farmers intend to plant 19.800 million acres or 8.013 million hectares to canola. That is up from the intentions forecast at 19.225 million acres or 7.780 million hectares to canola. It would be a record. Plantings last year totaled 16.818 million acres or 6.806 million hectares. A recent survey found Canadian analysts estimating canola plantings would total between 17.25 million to 18.25 million acres. Even assuming that a significant portion of acres went unseeded, actual plantings may still well exceed the high end of the forecast range. In 2010 when farmers also suffered through severe delays from rains, final acres came down about one million from intentions. Every year is unique and there can be no guarantees, but this one example suggests that 2011 plantings could well exceed 18 million and easily set a new record. Courtesy of Hart Barham Economist Doane Advisory Services |
| Monday June 6, 2011 |
| W.Canada planting 80% finished - Wheat Board * Planting unlikely to resume in flooded zones * Most of Prairies to finish seeding this week WINNIPEG, Manitoba, June 6 (Reuters) - Western Canada's farmers have planted 80 percent of their crops, behind normal progress, with parts of Saskatchewan and Manitoba likely to stay fallow this year due to wetness, a Canadian Wheat Board official said on Monday. Normally, the region has seeded 93 percent of crops by this time. Across most of the Prairies, farmers will finish planting this week to beat crop insurance deadlines of between June 10-20, said Stuart McMillan, crop and weather analyst for the Wheat Board. It's a different story in flooded southeastern Saskatchewan and southwestern Manitoba, which may get even more rain this week, McMillan said. "Realistically, at this point, I don't know that even tremendously favorable weather would undo the volume of rain they have received," he said. Planting delays extend, with lesser severity, as far west as the Alberta foothills of the Canadian Rockies, McMillan said. Those areas are usually finished at this time of year, but this year have about 20 percent of seeding to go. Farmers in southeast Saskatchewan grow mostly durum and spring wheat, legume crops and some canola. In southwest Manitoba, wheat and canola are popular. Planting progress has nosed past last year's progress of 78 percent complete, however in 2010, the region received steady rains that ultimately left the biggest unplanted area in decades. A week ago, farmers had completed 73 percent of planting. Late planting isn't the only problem for farmers. Cooler than normal temperatures for the past week have slowed growth of crops and limited evaporation of excess water, McMillan said. Later planting can also reduce yields and quality. (Reporting by Rod Nickel; Editing by Marguerita Choy) |
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