COTTON bulls get a 536,000-bale decrease in production as NASS’s first survey-based estimate for 2021/22 is 17.3 million bales. On the flip side, beginning stocks are raised higher as estimated exports for 2020/21 are reduced -50,000 bales based on final Export Sales data and Census Bureau data through June. Exports are lowered -200,000 from the July forecast. Net-net, U.S. ending stocks are -300,000 bales lower, equating to 17 percent of expected use, the same as in 2020/21. The U.S. season-average price for upland cotton is forecast +5 cents per pound higher than in July which, at 80 cents, would be its highest since 2011/12. Global ending stocks are slightly lower on reduced production in Brazil, the United States, and Uzbekistan. World 2021/22 cotton ending stocks are projected at 87.2 million bales, about -500,000 bales lower than in July, and -4.6 million lower than in 2020/21.